Abstract
This conceptual model of avalanche hazard identifies the key components of avalanche hazard and structures them into a systematic, consistent workflow for hazard and risk assessments. The method is applicable to all types of avalanche forecasting operations, and the underlying principles can be applied at any scale in space or time. The concept of an avalanche problem is introduced, describing how different types of avalanche problems directly influence the assessment and management of the risk. Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature. We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and then described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines.
Highlights
Snow avalanche hazard affects recreation, transportation, property and resource industries in snow-covered, mountainous areas worldwide (Stethem et al 2003)
Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature
We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines
Summary
Snow avalanche hazard affects recreation, transportation, property and resource industries in snow-covered, mountainous areas worldwide (Stethem et al 2003). The objective of this paper is to address this shortcoming by introducing a conceptual model of avalanche hazard (CMAH) that is universally applicable in all types of avalanche safety operations, is directly informative for risk mitigation decisions and aligns with best practices for risk management in other natural hazards disciplines. While this proposed model has direct advantages for operational avalanche forecasting, the overall framework offers benefits for education, communication and research. We follow with a discussion of operational experiences with the CMAH in Canada and the USA before concluding the paper with a summary of the benefits of the model
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