A Computerized Industry-Occupational Forecast for Local Area Manpower Planning as Mandated by the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act of December 1973.

Abstract

Local planning was not encouraged as long as manpower training programs were categorical and centrally controlled from Washington. The Cooperative Area Manpower Planning System began encouraging local planning, but the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act of 1973 mandates that local prime sponsors of federally-funded manpower training conduct occupational trend analysis. Quantitative occupational forecasts are badly needed for local planning areas; however, there is no published data of detailed occupational employment trends for local areas. This paper provides a new forecasting technique to generate this planning data within the context of a comprehensive manpower planning model that considers manpower factors internal and external to the firm and blends industry and government manpower planning. The regression model considers the expansion of an industry and the internal changes in occupational mix. It forecasts, on a monthly basis for 8 years in advance, the local labor demand for 47 industrial g...