A comprehensive theory of dynamic risk and protective factors

Abstract

Abstract The current conceptualization of “dynamic risk factors” (DRF) for criminal offending is problematic. It is generally accepted that there are significant conceptual issues in this domain, however, until recently addressing these have not been prioritized. Instead the majority of research and literature has focused on the success of DRF in predicting reoffending, and the effectiveness of treatment programmes that target DRF. Similar conceptual issues apply to “protective factors” (PF), which are frequently defined as the opposite of DRF; factors that reduce rather than increase risk of reoffending. In addition to the vagueness of these broad definitions, problems arise when researchers attempt to explain the theoretical and practical relationship between the two. Two important and challenging questions arise: 1) what exactly are these risk-related features? And 2) how do they relate to each other and criminal behavior? In this paper we argue that by building a comprehensive model of predictive agency we may be able to understand the causes of crime and desistence, and that this is crucial in improving outcomes for both those who have committed offences and the societies they live within.