A comprehensive techno-economic analysis for optimally placed wind farms

Abstract

Wind power project development investment is based on the separate technical and financial analyses. Based on the actual wind data, data-based wind distribution map and wake effect model, a combined techno-economic analysis is proposed in this paper. Starting from deriving the wind distribution map, a comprehensive analysis extending to the feasibility assessment of the project is presented here. The problem is formulated as the maximization of net present value of the project subject to the specified initial investment cost within a fixed area and turbine spacing constraints. Simultaneous optimization of the wind turbine size, hub height and placement is realized with BPSO-TVAC. Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are used to investigate the feasibility of the project, against various parameters, imposed on by the techno-economic constraints. Hypothesis testing with a confidence level of 99.99% corroborates the results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. With scenario analysis, a positive NPV is identified even in the worst-case scenario, an attractive trait for investors. An ideal decision-making tool considering technical efficiency and profitability simultaneously is presented.