A Comprehensive Hepatitis C Viral Kinetic Model Explaining Cure

Abstract

We propose a model that characterizes and links the complexity and diversity of clinically observed hepatitis C viral kinetics to sustained virologic response (SVR)-the primary clinical end point of hepatitis C treatment, defined as an undetectable viral load at 24 weeks after completion of treatment)-in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) who have received treatment with peginterferon alpha-2a +/- ribavirin. The new attributes of our hepatitis C viral kinetic model are (i) the implementation of a cure/viral eradication boundary, (ii) employment of all hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA measurements, including those below the lower limit of quantification (LLOQ), and (iii) implementation of a population modeling approach. The model demonstrated excellent positive (99.3%) and negative (97.1%) predictive values for SVR as well as high sensitivity (96.6%) and specificity (99.4%). The proposed viral kinetic model provides a framework for mechanistic exploration of treatment outcome and permits evaluation of alternative CHC treatment options with the ultimate aim of developing and testing hypotheses for personalizing treatments in this disease.