Abstract
The sustained COVID-19 case numbers and the associated hospitalizations have placed a substantial burden on health care ecosystem comprising of hospitals, clinics, doctors and nurses. However, as of today, only a small number of studies have examined detailed hospitalization data from a planning perspective. The current study develops a comprehensive framework for understanding the critical factors associated with county level hospitalization and ICU usage rates across the US employing a host of independent variables. Drawing from the recently released Department of Health and Human Services weekly hospitalization data, we study the overall hospitalization and ICU usage—not only COVID-19 hospitalizations. Developing a framework that examines overall hospitalizations and ICU usage can better reflect the plausible hospital system recovery path to pre-COVID level hospitalization trends. The models are subsequently employed to generate predictions for county level hospitalization and ICU usage rates in the future under several COVID-19 transmission scenarios considering the emergence of new COVID-19 variants and vaccination rates. The exercise allows us to identify vulnerable counties and regions under stress with high hospitalization and ICU rates that can be assisted with remedial measures. Further, the model will allow hospitals to understand evolving displaced non-COVID hospital demand.
Highlights
It is an understatement to suggest that the sustained COVID-19 case numbers and the associated hospitalizations have placed a substantial burden on health care ecosystem comprising of hospitals, clinics, doctors and nurses
Towards addressing these aforementioned challenges, the current study develops a comprehensive framework for understanding the critical factors associated with county level hospitalization and Intensive care units (ICUs) usage rates across the US
The data for our analysis is drawn from the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) database compiled from approximately 5,000 hospitals encompassing 2,462 counties in the c ountry[20].The dataset provides information on weekly hospitalization and ICU data from July 31st, 2020 through January 22nd, 2021
Summary
The sustained COVID-19 case numbers and the associated hospitalizations have placed a substantial burden on health care ecosystem comprising of hospitals, clinics, doctors and nurses. The current study develops a comprehensive framework for understanding the critical factors associated with county level hospitalization and ICU usage rates across the US employing a host of independent variables. The stabilization of the hospital system will only occur after the displaced health needs of non- COVID patients (delayed surgeries and treatments) are addressed Towards addressing these aforementioned challenges, the current study develops a comprehensive framework for understanding the critical factors associated with county level hospitalization and ICU usage rates across the US. The estimated models are employed to generate predictions for hospitalization and ICU usage rates into the future under a host of COVID-19 transmission scenarios considering the new variants of COVID-19 and vaccination impacts. Given the evolving challenges of COVID-19 the research efforts are still in their infancy
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