A comprehensive assessment of yield loss in rice due to surface ozone pollution in India during 2005–2020: A great concern for food security

Abstract

CONTEXTAbout 60% of the world population relies primarily on rice as their staple food, and India ranks second in terms of global rice production. Studies have shown the adverse impact of surface ozone pollution on agriculture, particularly the yield loss (YL) of major staple crops. OBJECTIVE(i) To assess the bias associated with ozone data used for YL estimation, (ii) to find the uncertainties in ozone exposure/crop-response methods applied for computing YL and (iii) to analyse the spatio-temporal variability of YL in rice due to surface ozone in India for the period 2005–2020 to assess food security of the country. METHODSWe use the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer chemical reanalysis (TCR-2) surface ozone data and the ozone exposure/crop-response functions to compute YL in rice. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSBy using the AOT40 crop-response method, we find a crop production loss (CPL) of about 7.39 million tonnes (Mt) of rice in 2005, which increased to 11.46 Mt. in 2020. The estimated average CPL for the study period is sufficient to feed about 233 million people per year. It also has incurred an economic loss of about $2.92 billion in 2020. SIGNIFICANCEAtmospheric pollution must be reduced to protect crop health and ensure food security, as evidenced by the two-fold rise of YL in rice due to ozone pollution during the past decade in India. This is also applicable to all agrarian economies of the world with high atmospheric pollution; reiterating the global significance of this study.