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Abstract
This work aims at defining in a probabilistic manner objectives and constraints typically considered in route optimization systems. Information about weather-related uncertainties is introduced by adopting ensemble forecast results. Classical reliability methods commonly used in structural analysis are adopted, allowing to achieve a simple yet effective evaluation of the probability of failure and the variability associated with the predicted fuel consumption and time of arrival. A quantitative example of application is provided, taking into consideration one of the main North Atlantic routes.
Highlights
The selection of the most appropriate path for a ship to sail towards the destination has been a concern since the ancient times of maritime history
The weather forecast is affected by uncertainties [7], which are nowadays to be mostly attributed to the inaccurate and partial knowledge about the initial conditions as third-generation numerical weather prediction models have achieved a high level of model accuracy
A method has been proposed to exploit the additional information provided by ensemble weather forecasts in the identification of the most favourable ship route
Summary
The selection of the most appropriate path for a ship to sail towards the destination has been a concern since the ancient times of maritime history. A comprehensive and flexible way to incorporate uncertainties in the optimisation process is still missing, and the present work aims at filling this gap by proposing a method, potentially applicable to any voyage optimization algorithm, to evaluate uncertainties in the objectives and constraints typically accounted in ship routing.
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