Abstract
China is the second-largest economy country, and the largest country worldwide in total solar energy system capacity installed. More than 70% of total solar collector capacity worldwide is installed in China. The production of solar collector in China had decreased significantly from 64 million m2 in 2012 to 37 million m2 in 2017, corresponding to a reduction of around 40% of the market in 2012. There are very limited comprehensive studies in existing literature, which have investigated the reasons on the decline of Chinese solar thermal market. This study aims to identify the reasons from both the demand and the supply sides in details. Furthermore, with the rise of emerging markets, such as the rapid development of the “Clean Heating Initiative” for space heating in North China, solar heat industrial process, and the mandatory installation of solar domestic hot water system for residential buildings below 100 m in urban area, the Chinese solar thermal market is expected to recover soon, called “U-shaped curve” in this study. The market share of flat plate collector and evacuated tube collector is predicted to change in the near future. The research and development of flat plate solar collectors will increase continually in the market other than evacuated tube solar collectors like the past 10 years. The main driver for the solar thermal market development in China in the near future will be the demand from the urban area.
Highlights
Solar thermal industry in China has developed rapidly since 1995 [1]
By means of a regression prediction method and by the relevance principle, a transition probability matrix is constructed based on expert questionnaire surveys with an aim to predict the development trend of evacuated tube collectors and flat plate collectors in China
China is the largest solar thermal collector producer and market in the world, installed capacity of solar hot water systems per capita in China are still quite low compared to other countries, which means there is huge market potential in China [48]
Summary
Solar thermal industry in China has developed rapidly since 1995 [1]. China's total installed solar thermal capacity (cumulative total) has accounted for approximately 70% of the whole world's capacity since 2013 [2], with a significant difference of more than ten-times as the capacity of the second largest country. China was far ahead of the other countries, which accounted for more than 75% of total newly installed capacity worldwide in 2015. The utilization of solar thermal systems can significantly contributes to China's transition to green energy society [7]
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