Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV) disease outbreaks occurred in French Polynesia in 2013–2014 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2015–2016, respectively. Using our recently developed ZIKV disease model, we simulated the reported ZIKV infection cases from French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia of Brazil. Moreover, we estimated that the infection attack rates were 78.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 63.5–86.3%) in French Polynesia which closely matches a previous serological study; 20.8% (95% CI: 1.1–50.0%) in Colombia which suggests that the attack rate was most likely less than 50%; and 32.4% (95% CI: 2.5–94.2%) in the State of Bahia in Brazil which suggests that the attack rate is unidentifiable with monthly data in Bahia. Furthermore, we found that the association of precipitation and ZIKV outbreak was more evident in Colombia than the other two places. These results are helpful for us to understand the possible evolution, to control the on-going outbreaks, to prevent the potential geographic spread, and to study the ecological and epidemiological characteristics of ZIKV.
Highlights
There are various epidemiological studies on Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks in other regions
We found that the model simulations for French Polynesia and Colombia attain the smallest BIC at nm = 3
The estimated ξ has wide confidence intervals in French Polynesia and Bahia which suggests that the effect of precipitation is indistinguishable in these two places
Summary
There are various epidemiological studies on ZIKV outbreaks in other regions. Duffy et al.[13] conducted a serological study on the 2007 Yap Island ZIKV outbreak and reported that 73% (95% CI: 68–77%) of population (age ≥ 3 years) were infected during the epidemic. Since the ZIKV strains of some outbreaks were related[16, 17], in this paper we will compare different outbreaks in order to understand the common as well as distinct epidemiological factors of ZIKV. These results will be helpful to study the evolution of ZIKV. Johnson and Sukhdeo[20] observed that early seasonal drought conditions (i.e., increased temperatures and decreased precipitation totals) are strongly associated with increases in yearly WNV infection rates in Culex spp. in New Jersey. In our recent report[22], a mathematical model was proposed to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmissions on the spread and control of ZIKV. The data we used were only up to February 2016
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