A comparison of three different stochastic population models with regard to persistence time

Abstract

Results are summarized from the literature on three commonly used stochastic population models with regard to persistence time. In addition, several new results are introduced to clearly illustrate similarities between the models. Specifically, the relations between the mean persistence time and higher-order moments for discrete-time Markov chain models, continuous-time Markov chain models, and stochastic differential equation models are compared for populations experiencing demographic variability. Similarities between the models are demonstrated analytically, and computational results are provided to show that estimated persistence times for the three stochastic models are generally in good agreement when the models are consistently formulated. As an example, the three stochastic models are applied to a population satisfying logistic growth. Logistic growth is interesting as different birth and death rates can yield the same logistic differential equation. However, the persistence behavior of the population is strongly dependent on the explicit forms for the birth and death rates. Computational results demonstrate how dramatically the mean persistence time can vary for different populations that experience the same logistic growth.