A comparison of the regional investment benefits of CCS retrofitting of coal-fired power plants and renewable power generation projects in China

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology and renewable power are indispensable in China’s power sector to limit global warming to 2°C. Because the two technologies have their own merits and weaknesses, it is important to understand their investment benefits and choose a cost-effective portfolio. Therefore, we conducted an investment evaluation of CCS retrofitting of coal-fired power plants (CFPP) with hypothetical subsidies and renewable power generation projects (RPP) by using a real option trinomial tree pricing model and compared their economic benefits in different provinces in China. The results showed that when subsidies for the desulfurization price or the feed-in tariff of wind power were adopted, the CCS retrofitting of CFPP did not achieve the optimal investment value, even in 2027. If the decarbonized electricity price increases to 0.75 CNY/kWh, equal to the feed-in tariff of solar photovoltaic and biomass power, the CCS retrofitting of CFPP would be commercially viable, and their investment value would exceed that of wind power generation projects. In this situation, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Gansu Provinces would be most suitable for the development of CCS retrofitting pilot projects; the advantages of the CCS retrofitting of CFPP were not significant, whereas RPP was a better investment choice in many provinces. This paper provides a perspective on feed-in tariffs for policy makers to use in formulating a subsidy system to support the development of CCS in China, with policy implications for other countries.