A Comparison of the CSR Estimates of Net Migration, 1950-60 and the Census Estimates, 1955-60 for the United States

Abstract

This paper compares two types of estimates of net migration for the United States, one by the forward survival ratio method derived at the Population Studies Center of the University of Pennsylvania (CRS Estimates) and the other based on the place of residence question in the 1960 Census framed by the U.S. Bureau of Census (Census Estimates). Restricting the study to the white male population, and specifically to the two groups aged 20-24 and 25-29 in 1960, the author has attempted to explain the relationship between the two types of estimate in terms of several factors, namely, the impact of multiple moves, mortality among migrants, changing probability of migration with age, military migration and economic variables such as median income, percent urban and percent unemployed. As anticipated by the author, the net migration for the 20-24 cohort was closely associated with military concentration whereas for the 25-29 cohort the association of net migration with economic factors