A Comparison of Stepwise Cluster Analysis and Multiple Linear Regression for Hydrological Simulation

Abstract

Investigating the dynamic characteristic of hydrological processes is of vital significance for environmental protection. In this study, the stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) method was used for monthly streamflow simulation in a hypothetical case. According to SCA, a cluster tree was formulated through training the data of monthly temperature, precipitation and streamflow from 2004 to 2010. Then, the generated tree was used to reproduce monthly streamflow in calibration period (i.e., 2004-2010) and validation period (i.e., 2011-2013). A comparison of SCA and multiple linear regression (MLR) was conducted to reflect the complex relationship of meteorological parameters (e.g., precipitation) and hydrological parameters. Model performance was assessed using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE), the determination coefficient (R 2), the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE). NSE and R2 obtained from SCA are higher than that obtained from MLR. RMSE and MAE obtained from SCA are smaller than that obtained from MLR, indicating a better coincidence between simulated streamflow and the observed values in SCA. Results indicated that SCA has advantage in revealing the nonlinear relationship among precipitation, temperature and streamflow.