A comparison of presence-only analytical techniques and their application in forest pest modeling

Abstract

Insect pests are natural disturbance agents that can significantly alter the structure and composition of forested landscapes, and thus impact their ability to provide critical ecosystem services. Predicting population levels of pest species has become crucial for the management of healthy forests, and species distribution modeling techniques may assist with predictions. Due to the nature of sampling in pest assessments there is often a lack of absence data which requires practitioners to rely on presence-only information. Modeling approaches have been developed for presence-only data but have not been tested for pest species that have major impacts on forest ecosystems. Our research objectives were to compare species distribution models for traditional techniques (i.e., generalized linear and additive models) and contemporary machine learning algorithms (i.e., maximum entropy, random forest, gradient boosted decision trees, and extreme gradient boosting), as well as assess how varying background points influence model performance. True presence-absence data and presences combined with background point data at one, two, three, and ten times the number of presences were compared. Comparisons were done using a comprehensive dataset from 2405 survey plots that assessed the presence and absence of non-native Sirex woodwasp (Sirex noctilio Fabricius) collected in pine plantations in Chile. Contemporary machine learning techniques (>84% average accuracy) outperformed traditional modeling techniques (<82% average accuracy) when utilizing true presence-absence data. For presence-background point models, accuracy tended to increase as the number of background points increased, except for generalized additive models and MaxEnt which had relatively similar performances. Generalized linear models, MaxEnt, and random forest substantially underperformed as compared to other modeling frameworks when using background point data. Gradient boosting and extreme gradient boosting had the highest prediction accuracies when combined with background points (74–81% depending on the number of background points) and may provide valuable alternative analyses to traditional techniques for presence-only data that contain complex correlations and interactions. Increasing the precision of these models, while reducing the inherent biases due to data structure, will allow for more informed forest pest management. This is becoming increasingly important, as changes in population and outbreak dynamics and the introduction of invasive species are projected to increase in the coming decades, partially due to global climate change and increased international trade and travel.