A comparison of NEAR actual spacecraft costs with three parametric cost models

Abstract

Costs for modern (post-1990) U.S.-built small planetary spacecraft have been shown to exhibit significantly different trends from those of larger spacecraft. These differences cannot be accounted for simply by the change in size alone. Some have attributed this departure to NASA's “faster, better, cheaper” design approach embodied by the efficiency of smaller teams, reduced government oversight, increased focus on cost, and short development periods. With the Discovery, Mars Surveyor and New Millennium programs representing the new approach to planetary exploration, it is important to understand these current cost trends and to be able to estimate costs of future proposed missions. To address this issue, The Aerospace Corporation (hereafter referred to as Aerospace) performed a study to compare the actual costs of the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) spacecraft bus (instruments were not estimated) using three different cost models; the U.S. Air Force Unmanned Spacecraft Cost Model, Version 7 (USCM-7), the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) NASA/Air Force Cost Model 1996 (NAFCOM96) and The Aerospace Corporation's Small Satellite Cost Model 1998 (SSCM98). The NEAR spacecraft was chosen for comparison because it was the first Discovery mission launched, and recently recognized with a Laurel award by Aviation Week and Space Technology as a benchmark for NASA's Discovery program [North, 1997]. It was also selected because the cost data has been released into the public domain [Hemmings, 1996]which makes it easy to discuss in a public forum. This paper summarizes the NEAR program, provides a short synopsis of each of the three cost models, and demonstrates how they were applied for this study.