Abstract
In this article a second look is taken at the effect that national conditions have on individual U.S. Senate elections. In doing so, the effects that presidential popularity, aggregate national economic conditions, and short‐term party evaluations have had on individual Senate contests from 1980 through 1996 are examined. In addition to assessing the comparative influence of these national factors, consideration is given to the question of whether open seat contests should be included in the same models as Senate races where the incumbent is seeking reelection. Analyses of results for national, state, and candidate data provide strong evidence that incumbent and open seat elections are sufficiently different in that each merit their own model rather than being included in the same one. In contests where incumbents are seeking reelection, national economic conditions are the dominant national influence on individual Senate races. By contrast, national factors play a very limited role in open seat contests.
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