A comparison of actual and perceived risk of apprehension for speeding in Norway

Abstract

This paper compares actual and perceived risk of apprehension for speeding in Norway. Actual risk of apprehension was estimated by relying on data on the number of citations for speeding and the percentage of vehicles speeding when passing automatic traffic counting stations. It was defined as the number of detected violations per million kilometres driven while committing a violation. Perceived risk of apprehension was estimated as a mean annual frequency of getting detected by the police, based on survey answers given by samples of drivers surveyed in 2010, 2014 and 2024. Actual risk of apprehension was converted into a mean annual frequency of detection by relying on estimates of the mean annual driving distance. Thus, perceived mean annual frequency of detection could be compared to actual mean annual frequency of detection. Drivers were found to overestimate the risk of apprehension considerably, but the size of the overestimation declined from 2010 to 2014 and further again to 2024. In 2024, mean perceived risk of apprehension was about 2.4 times higher than actual risk of apprehension. Drivers were also found to overestimate the number of speed cameras deployed in Norway. Only a small minority of drivers had a correct perception of how the risk of apprehension for speeding varied according to the level of speeding. The decisions drivers make about speeding are based on their perceived risk of apprehension; hence it is advantageous to compliance that drivers overestimate the risk of apprehension.