A comparison between multivariate adaptive regression splines and regressive convolution neural network with support vector regression for pipe burst rate prediction on limited dataset

Abstract

ABSTRACT By accurate predicting of pipe bursts, it is possible to schedule pipe maintenance, rehabilitation and improve level of services in Water Distribution Networks (WDNs). In recent years, artificial intelligence techniques have been used vastly in pipe burst prediction. These techniques need big input dataset for deep learning but big dataset might not be available in old WDNs. This paper aimed to compare the performance of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and regressive convolution neural network with least square support vector regression (RCNN-LSSVR) for predicting of Pipe Burst Rate (PBR) with limited dataset. Pipes age, diameter, depth of installation, length, average and maximum hydraulic pressure are considered as effective parameters of PBR. Data collected from real-case study in Iran include 158 cases for polyethylene and 124 cases for asbestos cement pipes during 2012–2019. The results indicate that RCNN-LSSVR model has a great performance of PBR prediction on limited dataset.