Abstract

Background. Breast cancer which is the most common cause of women cancer death has an increasing incidence and mortality rates in Iran. A proper modeling would correctly detect the factors' effect on breast cancer, which may be the basis of health care planning. Therefore, this study aimed to practically develop two recently introduced statistical models in order to compare them as the survival prediction tools for breast cancer patients. Materials and Methods. For this retrospective cohort study, the 18-year follow-up information of 539 breast cancer patients was analyzed by “Parametric Mixture Cure Model” and “Model-Based Recursive Partitioning.” Furthermore, a simulation study was carried out to compare the performance of mentioned models for different situations. Results. “Model-Based Recursive Partitioning” was able to present a better description of dataset and provided a fine separation of individuals with different risk levels. Additionally the results of simulation study confirmed the superiority of this recursive partitioning for nonlinear model structures. Conclusion. “Model-Based Recursive Partitioning” seems to be a potential instrument for processing complex mixture cure models. Therefore, applying this model is recommended for long-term survival patients.

Highlights

  • BackgroundThis study aimed to practically develop two recently introduced statistical models in order to compare them as the survival prediction tools for breast cancer patients

  • Breast cancer, which is the second most prevalent cancer among Iranian females [1], is the most common cause of women cancer death in the world [2]

  • If a global model for all observations fits inappropriately, the total population could be split in a way that a proper fit is provided for each subset; this idea is the main motivation of ModelBased Recursive Partitioning” (MoBRP) technique

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Summary

Background

This study aimed to practically develop two recently introduced statistical models in order to compare them as the survival prediction tools for breast cancer patients. For this retrospective cohort study, the 18-year follow-up information of 539 breast cancer patients was analyzed by “Parametric Mixture Cure Model” and “Model-Based Recursive Partitioning.”. A simulation study was carried out to compare the performance of mentioned models for different situations. The results of simulation study confirmed the superiority of this recursive partitioning for nonlinear model structures. “Model-Based Recursive Partitioning” seems to be a potential instrument for processing complex mixture cure models. Applying this model is recommended for long-term survival patients

Introduction
Materials and Methods
Results and Discussion
Conclusions
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