A Comparative Theory of Dynastic Candidate Selection

Abstract

This chapter introduces a comparative theory of dynastic candidate selection based on a framework of supply and demand within the institutional contexts of electoral systems and candidate selection methods. On the supply side, incumbents who serve longer terms in office, and who are themselves part of an existing dynasty, will be more likely to have family members who select into politics. However, relative demand for their potential successors will be higher where electoral institutions generate candidate-centered elections, and in parties where candidate selection processes are exclusive and decentralized, leaving much of the decision up to local party actors—in Japan’s case, primarily the support groups of exiting candidates. Demand for legacy candidates should also be higher in parties with weak organizational linkages to groups in civil society and when the previous incumbent dies in office. Comparative evidence is presented in support of the theory.