A Comparative Study on Emerging Electric Vehicle Technology Assessments

Abstract

Numerous organizations have published reports in recent years that investigate the ever changing world of electric vehicle (EV) technologies and their potential effects on society. Specifically, projections have been made on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with these vehicles and how they compare to conventional vehicles or hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Similar projections have been made on the volumes of oil that these vehicles can displace by consuming large amounts of grid electricity instead of petroleum-based fuels. Finally, the projected rate that these new vehicle fleets will enter the market varies significantly among organizations. New ideas, technologies, and possibilities are introduced often, and projected values are likely to be refined as industry announcements continue to be made. As a result, over time, a multitude of projections for GHG emissions, oil displacement, and market penetration associated with various EV technologies has resulted in a wide range of possible future outcomes. This leaves the reader with two key questions: (1) Why does such a collective range in projected values exist in these reports? (2) What assumptions have the greatest impact on the outcomes presented in these reports? Since it is impractical for an average reader to review and interpret all the various vehicle technology reports published to date, Sentech Inc. and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory have conducted a comparative study to make these interpretations. The primary objective of this comparative study is to present a snapshot of all major projections made on GHG emissions, oil displacement, or market penetration rates of EV technologies. From the extensive data found in relevant publications, the key assumptions that drive each report's analysis are identified and 'apples-to-apples' comparisons between all major report conclusions are attempted. The general approach that was taken in this comparative study is comprised of six primary steps: (1) Search Relevant Literature - An extensive search of recent analyses that address the environmental impacts, market penetration rates, and oil displacement potential of various EV technologies was conducted; (2) Consolidate Studies - Upon completion of the literature search, a list of analyses that have sufficient data for comparison and that should be included in the study was compiled; (3) Identify Key Assumptions - Disparity in conclusions very likely originates from disparity in simple assumptions. In order to compare 'apples-to-apples,' key assumptions were identified in each study to provide the basis for comparing analyses; (4) Extract Information - Each selected report was reviewed, and information on key assumptions and data points was extracted; (5) Overlay Data Points - Visual representations of the comprehensive conclusions were prepared to identify general trends and outliers; and (6) Draw Final Conclusions - Once all comparisons are made to the greatest possible extent, the final conclusions were draw on what major factors lead to the variation in results among studies.