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Abstract
In recent years, the incidence of hepatitis B (HB) in Guangxi is higher than that of the national level; it has been increasing, so it is urgent to do a good predictive research of HB incidence, which can help analyze the early warning of hepatitis B in Guangxi, China. In the study, the feasibility of predicting HB incidence in Guangxi by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model method and Elman neural network (ElmanNN) method was discussed respectively, and the prediction accuracy of the two models was compared. Finally, we established the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model and ElmanNN with 8 neurons. Both ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model and ElmanNN model had good performance, and their prediction accuracy were high. The fitting and prediction root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of ElmanNN were smaller than those of ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model, which indicated that ElmanNN was superior to ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model in predicting the incidence of hepatitis B in Guangxi. Based on the ElmanNN, the HB incidence from September 2019 to December 2020 in Guangxi was predicted, the predicted results showed that the incidence of HB in 2020 was slightly higher than that in 2019 and the change trend was similar to that in 2019, for 2021 and beyond, the ElmanNN model could be used to continue the predictive analysis.
Highlights
Hepatitis B (HB) is a chronic infectious disease caused by hepatitis B (HB) virus infection in liver tissue
Based on the data of HB incidence from January 2012 to August 2019 in Guangxi, we studied the feasibility of predicting HB incidence in Guangxi by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and Elman neural network model, and compared the prediction effects of the two models and did predictive analysis, so as to provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of HB in Guangxi
In recent years, the incidence of hepatitis B in Guangxi, China, has shown an upward trend, which needs to attract the attention of disease prevention and control departments, some departments should take joint actions to reduce the incidence of HB, and research from different angles should be carried out
Summary
Hepatitis B (HB) is a chronic infectious disease caused by HB virus infection in liver tissue. If HB is not treated in time, a small number of patients with liver tissue will further appear inflammatory aggravation, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer [1]. There are about 300 million people living with chronic HB virus (including chronic HB patients and HB virus carriers), mainly in East Asia, South Asia, sub-Africa and other regions [2]. Due to the large number of people living with chronic HB virus, it has become an important public health problem in the world. China is the country with the heaviest burden of HB infection.
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