A comparative study of the performance of artificial neural network and multivariate regression in simulating springs discharge in the Caspian Southern Watersheds, Iran

Abstract

While there are different methods and models that can be applied to estimate the qualitative and quantitative parameters of water resources, unfortunately, no comprehensive qualitative and quantitative data exist about water resources in Iran. The present study is to compare the performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) and the multivariate regression methods in simulating spring discharge in the Caspian Southern Watersheds. Multivariate regression method was used by using SPSS software. Springs average discharge was considered as the dependent variable and other affecting factors as independent variables. Two linear models were presented for estimating the alluvial and karst springs discharge. Then, the models’ performance was evaluated and confirmed. Also, the artificial neural network was applied to simulate the alluvial and karst springs discharge. ANN performance was evaluated through two parameters: median root of square of the error and Pearson’s R-squared statistics. The results showed that the most important factors of karst springs discharge were the porosity of aquifer formation and the site elevation; in case of the alluvial springs, the transmissivity of aquifer formation and the aquifer depth were the most important factors. Moreover, ANN efficiency in estimating springs discharge was higher than that of the multivariate regression method.