Abstract
Accurate and reliable groundwater level forecasting models can help ensure the sustainable use of a watershed’s aquifers for urban and rural water supply. In this paper, three time series analysis methods, Holt–Winters (HW), integrated time series (ITS), and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), are explored to simulate the groundwater level in a coastal aquifer, China. The monthly groundwater table depth data collected in a long time series from 2000 to 2011 are simulated and compared with those three time series models. The error criteria are estimated using coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E), and root-mean-squared error. The results indicate that three models are all accurate in reproducing the historical time series of groundwater levels. The comparisons of three models show that HW model is more accurate in predicting the groundwater levels than SARIMA and ITS models. It is recommended that additional studies explore this proposed method, which can be used in turn to facilitate the development and implementation of more effective and sustainable groundwater management strategies.
Highlights
Groundwater is often one of the major sources of water supply for domestic, agricultural, and industrial users
The results indicate that three models are all accurate in reproducing the historical time series of groundwater levels
We evaluate and compare the potential of the three time series models [Holt–Winters (HW), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and integrated time series (ITS)] in the study area
Summary
Groundwater is often one of the major sources of water supply for domestic, agricultural, and industrial users. In some areas, it is taken as the only dependable source of supply because of its ready availability. The consequences of aquifer depletion can lead to local water rationing, excessive reductions in yields, wells going dry or producing erratic groundwater quality changes, changes in flow patterns of groundwater in the inflow of poorer quality water and sea water intrusion in coastal areas, and other harmful environmental side effects such as major water-level declines, reduction in water in streams and lakes, increased pumping costs, land subsidence, and decreased well yields have been a great concern to the water managers, engineers, and stakeholders (Adamowski and Chan 2011; Konikow and Kendy 2005; USGS 2010).
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