Abstract
Parking issues have been receiving increasing attention. An accurate parking occupancy prediction is considered to be a key prerequisite to optimally manage limited parking resources. However, parking prediction research that focuses on estimating the occupancy for various parking lots, which is critical to the coordination management of multiple parks (e.g., district-scale or city-scale), is relatively limited. This study aims to analyse the performance of different prediction methods with regard to parking occupancy, considering parking type and parking scale. Two forecasting methods, FM1 and FM2, and four predicting models, linear regression (LR), support vector machine (SVR), backpropagation neural network (BPNN), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), were proposed to build models that can predict the parking occupancy of different parking lots. To compare the predictive performances of these models, real-world data of four parks in Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Dongguan were collected over 8 weeks to estimate the correlation between the parking lot attributes and forecast results. As per the case studies, among the four models considered, SVM offers stable and accurate prediction performance for almost all types and scales of parking lots. For commercial, mixed functional, and large-scale parking lots, FM1 with SVM made the best prediction. For office and medium-scale parking lots, FM2 with SVM made the best prediction.
Highlights
Car parking has been a major issue in urban areas worldwide
This paper proposes a comparison study on the effects of various methods, such as linear regression, support vector machine (SVM), neural network, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), on the prediction performance of selected car parks considering various parking types and parking scales
ARIMA needs continuous historical data for prediction. erefore, only forecasting method 1 (FM1) was applied to ARIMA
Summary
Car parking has been a major issue in urban areas worldwide. With the increasing economic development and urbanisation, car ownerships are growing rapidly, which exacerbates the imbalance between parking supply and demand [1]. Around 30% of the traffic congestion in Chongqing and Shanghai, major cities of China, is due to lack of car parking spaces [2]. Is issue is mainly caused by ineffective parking management. According to the latest research report [3], the parking space utilisation rate of more than 90% of cities in China is
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