Abstract
The main purpose of this study was to develop and apply a neural network (NN) approach and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for forecasting the attendance rates at soccer games. The models were designed based on the characteristics of the problem. Past real data was used. Training data was used for training the models, and the testing data was used for evaluating the performance of the forecasting models. The obtained forecasting results were compared to the actual data and to each other. To evaluate the performance of the models, two statistical indicators, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE), were used. Based on the results, the proposed neural network approach and the ANFIS model were shown to be effective in forecasting attendance at soccer games. The neural network approach performed better than the ANFIS model. The main contribution of this study is to introduce two effective techniques for estimating attendance at sports games. This is the first attempt to use an ANFIS model for that purpose.
Highlights
Sports attendance has attracted substantial attention in the fields of sports economics and marketing
Forrest and Simmons [3] found that home team performance had a greater impact on attendance than away team performance, as Bruggink and Eaton [4] and Rascher [5] found for Major League Baseball
The proposed neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)-based soccer attendance forecasting approaches were applied to the attendance data of FC Barcelona, a Spanish football club
Summary
Sports attendance has attracted substantial attention in the fields of sports economics and marketing. An abundance of studies exist about attendance at sports games or demand for sports games. Day of the game, and quality of both home and away teams were found to be significant factors affecting demand. The geographical distance between the stadiums of home and away teams was considered a significant factor. This factor allowed the local derby effect on attendance. The geographical distance between away and home teams and the league ranking of the home team were considered significant variables. The number of points earned by home and away teams from their previous five games was a significant factor affecting attendance. Many studies have examined the factors affecting attendance of soccer games
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