Abstract
Mapping fire risk accurately is essential for the planning and protection of forests. This study aims to map fire risk (probability of ignition) in Marivan County of Kurdistan province, Iran, using the data mining approaches of the evidential belief function (EBF) and weight of evidence (WOE) models, with an emphasis placed on climatic variables. Firstly, 284 fire incidents in the region were randomly divided into two groups, including the training group (70%, 199 points) and the validation group (30%, 85 points). Given the previous studies and conditions of the region, the variables of slope percentage, slope direction, altitude, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from settlements, land use, slope curvature, rainfall, and maximum annual temperature were considered for zoning fire risk. Then, forest fire risk maps were prepared using the EBF and WOE models. The performance of each model was examined using the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results showed that WOE and EBF are effective tools for mapping forest fire risks in the study area. However, the WOE model shows a slightly higher Area Under the Curve value (0.896) compared to that of the EBF model (0.886), indicating a slightly better performance. The results of this study can provide valuable information for preventing forest fires in the study area.
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