A Comparative Study Between Bayesian Network and Hybrid Statistical Predictive Models for Proactive Power System Network Resilience Enhancement Operational Planning

Abstract

Enhancing the operational resilience of the distribution system network (DSN) proactively in a hurricane-prone region requires a pre-hurricane event DSN optimization model, built on accurate hurricane-induced DSN line fault prediction scenarios. In the past, the resilience evaluation methods such as statistical sequential and non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) contingency-based technique, and Machine learning-based Bayesian Networks (BN) technique, have been proposed to strengthen the operational resilience of the DSN proactively against the forecasted oncoming hurricane events. However, a comparative study is largely unexplored to evaluate which of these two methods is best for proactive operational planning decision-making against the forecasted oncoming hurricane event. In this paper, the Bayesian network (BN) and combined statistical DSN’s Fragility-curve(FC)-Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)-Scenario reduction (SCENRED) predictive algorithms were developed. The DSN line fault prediction scenarios simulated leveraging the predicted oncoming hurricane Ewiniar data were utilized to perform pre-hurricane DSN optimization to proactively decrease the DSN expected load loss. The pre-event system optimization problems were formulated in a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) approach and solved using a CPLEX solver in general algebraic modelling system (GAMS) on a redesigned 48-bus DSN. The simulated initial expected load loss of 39% of 35 MWh was decreased to 35.34%, and then to 30.71% with the use of combined statistical DSN’s FC-MCS-SCENRED, and the BN-DSN predictive models. These results were validated using the Electrical transient analyzer program (ETAP).This study confirmed that the BN-DSN predictive model is a better operational planning tool compared to combined statistical DSN’s line FC-MCS-SCENRED predictive model.