A comparative impact chain analysis of 1999 Kocaeli and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes

Abstract

Resilience in the face of crises is crucial for minimizing the impact of disasters and enabling rapid recovery. This study delves into the interlinked consequences of two seismic events that significantly impacted Türkiye in 1999 and 2023. Using an impact chain analysis, the aim is to provide a thorough understanding of the extensive effects on structures, infrastructure, and socio-economic dynamics. The research also examines the evolution of disaster management practices from the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake to the more recent seismic events in 2023, highlighting advancements in risk management and resilience. Structurally, both seismic events revealed vulnerabilities in building design, emphasizing seismic shortcomings that led to widespread damage. Earthquakes exert a profound impact on critical infrastructure, affecting transportation, communication, and energy systems, with cascading effects that extend to the broader socio-economic landscape. The effectiveness of the methodology, particularly, the Impact Chain analysis, is emphasized as it reveals complex causal relationships. Visual representations support effective communication and collaboration among stakeholders, offering a holistic perspective on systemic risks. In conclusion, this study contributes to understanding disaster resilience and provides a foundation for subsequent research, policy formulation, and pragmatic strategies for disaster preparedness and response.