A comparative evaluation of different scores in predicting severity and outcome in acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory condition usually caused by alcohol or gallstones. Our goal was to prospectively compare the diagnostic efficacy of the Acute Physiology & Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, the Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP), the Ranson's score & the Modified Glasgow Score (MGS) in determining the severity & outcome of Acute pancreatitis in a tertiary care facility in central India. Methods: Between December 2020 & December 2022, this prospective observational study was done in rural area of Wardha district. 110 subjects were included, and the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis was done using Atlanta criteria. APACHE II, MGS, Ranson score on admission, Ranson score 48 hours after admission & BISAP were used to evaluate each subject. The reciever operating curve was used to measure the specificity, sensitivity, NPV, PPV, diagnostic accuracy, area under the curve (AUC) & these scoring methods were then prospectively compared. Results: When a cut-off based on the literature was used, the APACHE II score could accurately diagnose severe cases of AP (n=110) in 69 patients, BISAP in 68 patients, MGS in 49, Ranson score on admission in 48 patients & after 48 hours in 48 patients. This study showed that Ranson score 48 hours after admission had a AUC (0.991), Ranson score at admission (AUC 0.989) & Modified Glasgow Scale (AUC 0.6486) had fair accuracy as compared to APACHE II (AUC 0.974) & BISAP (AUC 0.896) for determining the level of severity among AP patients based on ROC curves. Conclusion: To predict the severity of AP, the Ranson score after 48 hours showed the highest NPV, PPV, sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of all the scoring methods tested. The BISAP score had the highest specificity, sensitivity, PPV& NPV for determining the outcome of AP.