A Comparative Decomposition Analysis of the Factors Driving Energy-Related Carbon Emissions from Three Typical Provinces in China: Jiangsu, Henan and Inner Mongolia

The energy-related carbon emissions of China’s manufacturing increased rapidly, from 36988.97 × 104 tC in 1996 to 74923.45 × 104 tC in 2012. To explore the factors to the change of the energy-related carbon emissions from manufacturing sector and the decoupling relationship between energy-related carbon emissions and economic growth, the empirical research was carried out based on the LMDI method and Tapio decoupling model. We found that the production scale contributed the most to the increase of the total carbon emissions, while the energy intensity was the most inhibiting factor. And the effects of the intrastructure and fuel mix on the change of carbon emissions were relatively weak. At a disaggregative level within manufacturing sector, EI subsector had a greater impact on the change of the total carbon emissions, with much more potentiality of energy conservation and emission reduction. Weak decoupling of manufacturing sector carbon emissions from GDP could be observed in the manufacturing sector and EI subsector, while strong decoupling state appeared in NEI subsector. Several advices were put forward, such as adjusting the fuel structure and optimizing the intrastructure and continuing to improve the energy intensity to realize the manufacturing sustainable development in low carbon pattern.

Analysis of carbon emission mechanism based on regional perspectives is an important research method capable of achieving energy savings and emission reductions. Xinjiang, an important Chinese energy production base, is currently going through a period of strategic opportunities for rapid development. Ensuring stable socio-economic development while achieving energy savings and meeting emission reductions targets, is the key issue currently facing the region. This paper is based on the input-output theory, and conducts a structural decomposition analysis on the factors affecting energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 1997 to 2007; this analysis employs a hybrid input-output analysis framework of “energy - economy - carbon emissions”. (1) Xinjiang’s carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 20.70 million tons in 1997 to 40.34 million tons in 2007; carbon emissions growth was mainly concentrated in the production and processing of energy resources, the mining of mineral resources, and the processing industry. (2) The analysis of the direct effects of the influencing factors on carbon emissions showed that the change in per capita GDP, the final demand structure, the population scale, and the production structure were the important factors causing an increase in carbon emissions, while the decrease in carbon emission intensity during this period was the important influencing factor in stopping the growth of carbon emissions. This showed that while the sizes of Xinjiang’s economy and population were growing, the economic structure had not been effectively optimized and the production technology had not been efficiently improved, resulting in a rapid growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption. (3) The analysis of the indirect effects of the influencing factors of carbon emission showed that the inter-provincial export, fixed capital formation, and the consumption by urban residents had significant influence on the changes in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Xinjiang. (4) The growth of investments in fixed assets of carbon intensive industry sectors, in addition to the growth of inter-provincial exports of energy resource products, makes the transfer effect of inter-provincial “embodied carbon” very significant.

This paper expanded the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model through the introduction of urbanization, residents’ consumption, and other factors, and decomposed carbon emission changes in China into carbon emission factor effect, energy intensity effect, consumption inhibitory factor effect, urbanization effect, residents’ consumption effect, and population scale effect, and then explored contribution rates and action mechanisms of the above six factors on change in carbon emissions in China. Then, the effect of population structure change on carbon emission was analyzed by taking 2003–2012 as a sample period, and combining this with the panel data of 30 provinces in China. Results showed that in 2003–2012, total carbon emission increased by 4.2117 billion tons in China. The consumption inhibitory factor effect, urbanization effect, residents’ consumption effect, and population scale effect promoted the increase in carbon emissions, and their contribution ratios were 27.44%, 12.700%, 74.96%, and 5.90%, respectively. However, the influence of carbon emission factor effect (−2.54%) and energy intensity effect (−18.46%) on carbon emissions were negative. Population urbanization has become the main population factor which affects carbon emission in China. The “Eastern aggregation” phenomenon caused the population scale effect in the eastern area to be significantly higher than in the central and western regions, but the contribution rate of its energy intensity effect (−11.10 million tons) was significantly smaller than in the central (−21.61 million tons) and western regions (−13.29 million tons), and the carbon emission factor effect in the central area (−3.33 million tons) was significantly higher than that in the eastern (−2.00 million tons) and western regions (−1.08 million tons). During the sample period, the change in population age structure, population education structure, and population occupation structure relieved growth of carbon emissions in China, but the effects of change of population, urban and rural structure, regional economic level, and population size generated increases in carbon emissions. Finally, the change of population sex structure had no significant influence on changes in carbon emissions.

新疆能源消费碳排放过程及其影响因素——基于扩展的Kaya恒等式

Quantification and driving force analysis of provincial-level carbon emissions in China

Carbon emissions caused by residential consumption have become one of the main sources of carbon emission and revealed a huge growth trend in China. By processing data of Chinese input-output tables available and relative Statistical Yearbook, this paper uses RAS method to update the input-output tables to obtain the time series input-output tables from 2002 to 2011. Then, we use input-output method to make a contrastive analysis of changes in carbon emissions caused by Chinese rural and urban residents’ consumption. The results show that the indirect carbon emission caused by urban residents’ consumption is the main part of carbon emission caused by residents’ consumption, and the gap between carbon emission caused by urban and rural residents’ consumption is wider and wider. The annual per capita indirect carbon emissions in urban and rural areas increase by years, and the increment of the town is much greater than that of the country. At last, we analyze carbon emissions from residents’ consumption by sectors and obtain some meaningful results. In accordance with the above conclusions, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from consumer behaviors, structure of consumption, energy usage, and so on.

Multi-objective programming for energy system based on the decomposition of carbon emission driving forces: A case study of Guangdong, China

Comparative analysis of regional carbon emissions accounting methods in China: Production-based versus consumption-based principles

Estimation of energy-related carbon emissions in Beijing and factor decomposition analysis

An Estimation and Factor Decomposition Analysis of Energy-related Carbon Emissions in Beijing

There is a growing emphasis on fostering green growth and lowering carbon emissions in order to achieve sustainable economic development. This study uses the Tapio decoupling model and analyzes the factors influencing changes in carbon emissions from manufacturing in India utilizing the log mean Divisia index (LMDI) techniques. Furthermore, the nexus between carbon emission intensity, information and communication technology (ICT), total factor productivity (TFP), skill, and energy intensity has been analyzed using the system-GMM approach. It is based on the plant-level Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) datasets for the organized manufacturing sector of India from 2001 to 2002 to 2019 2020 for the major 21 Indian states/UT. The findings reflect the presence of weak decoupling in the manufacturing sector both at the aggregate level and in states. This indicates that both output and emissions are increasing; however, output growth surpasses emission growth, which signifies an effort to transition towards more environmentally friendly production methods and enhanced energy efficiency. The output and population effect are found to be leading factors in carbon emissions, while energy intensity is found to be reducing the effect. Further, the system-GMM estimates show that ICT and energy intensity positively affect total factor productivity, while with an increase in carbon emission intensity, productivity declines. The study confirms the existence of an inverted N-shaped Kuznets curve in the sector. This present study will contribute to formulating energy and environmental strategies to reduce emissions and promote adopting cleaner energy sources. These efforts will facilitate the attainment of carbon neutrality and enhance energy efficiency within the sector.

Ensuring food security and curbing agricultural carbon emissions are both global policy goals. The evaluation of the relationship between grain production and agricultural carbon emissions is important for carbon emission reduction policymaking. This paper took Heilongjiang province, the largest grain-producing province in China, as a case study, estimated its grain production-induced carbon emissions, and examined the nexus between grain production and agricultural carbon emissions from 2000 to 2018, using decoupling and decomposition analyses. The results of decoupling analysis showed that weak decoupling occurred for half of the study period; however, the decoupling state and coupling state occurred alternately, and there was no definite evolving path from coupling to decoupling. Using the log mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, we decomposed the changes in agricultural carbon emissions into four factors: agricultural economy, agricultural carbon emission intensity, agricultural structure, and agricultural labor force effects. The results showed that the agricultural economic effect was the most significant driving factor for increasing agricultural carbon emissions, while the agricultural carbon emission intensity effect played a key inhibiting role. Further integrating decoupling analysis with decomposition analysis, we found that a low-carbon grain production mode began to take shape in Heilongjiang province after 2008, and the existing environmental policies had strong timeliness and weak persistence, probably due to the lack of long-term incentives for farmers. Finally, we suggested that formulating environmental policy should encourage farmers to adopt environmentally friendly production modes and technologies through taxation, subsidies, and other economic means to achieve low-carbon agricultural goals in China.

With the rapid economic development of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang), energy consumption became the primary source of carbon emissions. The growth trend in energy consumption and coal-dominated energy structure are unlikely to change significantly in the short term, meaning that carbon emissions are expected to continue rising. To clarify the changes in energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang over the past 15 years, this paper integrates DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS data to generate long-term nighttime light remote sensing data from 2005 to 2020. The data is used to analyze the distribution characteristics of carbon emissions, spatial autocorrelation, frequency of changes, and the standard deviation ellipse. The results show that: (1) From 2005 to 2020, the total carbon emissions in Xinjiang continued to grow, with noticeable urban additions although the growth rate fluctuated. In spatial distribution, non-carbon emission areas were mainly located in the northwest; low-carbon emission areas mostly small and medium-sized towns; and high-carbon emission areas were concentrated around the provincial capital and urban agglomerations. (2) There were significant regional differences in carbon emissions, with clear spatial clustering of energy consumption. The clustering stabilized, showing distinct "high-high" and "low-low" patterns. (3) Carbon emissions in central urban areas remained stable, while higher frequencies of change were seen in the peripheral areas of provincial capitals and key cities. The center of carbon emissions shifted towards southeast but later showed a trend of moving northwest. (4) Temporal and spatial variations in carbon emissions were closely linked to energy consumption intensity, population size, and economic growth. These findings provided a basis for formulating differentiated carbon emission targets and strategies, optimizing energy structures, and promoting industrial transformation to achieve low-carbon economic development in Xinjiang.

Clarifying the "water-energy-carbon" nexus process and variation in the carbon emissions of a water system throughout the lifecycle of water resources is crucial for regional water resource management, energy-efficient utilization, and low-carbon development. This study introduces a comprehensive analytical framework for assessing carbon emissions across the entire lifecycle of water resources, grounded in the "water-energy-carbon" nexus. Utilizing statistical data from 2011 to 2021, the research analyzed the dynamic changes in carbon emissions in the water system in Zhejiang. Additionally, the STIRPAT model was employed to forecast carbon emissions from 2022 to 2040. The results showed that： ① The carbon emissions of the water system in Zhejiang mainly exhibited an "upward-downward-upward" trend, with an increase of 2.687 7 million tons in 2011-2012 and 4.888 4 million tons in 2020-2021, respectively, and a decrease of 11.371 6 million tons from 2012 to 2020. ② The carbon emissions of the water system in Zhejiang accounted for more than 95%, which had a decisive impact on the total change in the carbon emissions of the water system. ③ Urbanization rate was a key driving factor for changes in carbon emissions across various water system sectors, while population primarily affected carbon emissions from industrial and residential domestic water use. ④ The carbon emissions from the water system were at the lowest level under the low-carbon scenario and at the highest level under the extensive or coarse development scenario. Residential and public facility water consumption will be the main source of carbon emissions in the water system in the Zhejiang Province. Therefore, while controlling population growth and promoting urbanization, carrying out water-saving and emission reduction measures, including improving water use efficiency, optimizing the structure of water use, and reducing carbon emission intensity are necessary to effectively promote carbon reduction in the water system.

The rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization in China has gradually spread to the poor mountainous areas, which has not only brought about rapid economic development but has also caused the increasing competition for production-living-ecological spaces (PLES) and many ecological and environmental problems, carbon emissions have also increased. As an economically less developed and ecologically fragile area in China, whether the transition of the PLES in the mountain poverty belt has unique characteristics? How the PLES transition in mountainous areas affects carbon emissions and what are the important factors affecting carbon emissions? To explore these issues in depth, we studied the Taihang Mountain area in Shijiazhuang (TMS) using remote sensing image interpretation data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, and we analyzed the PLES evolution characteristics, carbon emission changes, carbon emission effects and its influencing factors of PLES. The results are as follows: 1) The TMS was dominated by ecological and production space. From 2000 to 2020, the production space decreased by 384.66 km2, the ecological space increased by 123.80 km2, and the living space increased by 260.86 km2. Agricultural production space was mainly converted to ecological and rural living space. Industrial and mining productive space was mainly converted to agricultural productive space and urban living space. 2) The study area was in a state of carbon deficit, the transition of ecological space and agricultural productive space to industrial and mining productive space and living space were the main transition types caused the carbon emissions increasing, and that of industrial and mining productive space to agricultural productive space was the main type caused the carbon emissions decreasing. 3) The proportion of construction land, urbanization rate and proportion of secondary industry are the main factors leading to the increase of carbon emissions. Per capita energy consumption, forest coverage and proportion of tertiary industry are the main factors leading to the decrease of carbon emissions. This can provide new ideas for research on carbon emissions from land-use changes and a theoretical basis for the optimization of territorial space in the mountainous areas of China.