Abstract
BackgroundLife expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) are indicators measuring the national health level. GAP is the difference between them. This study systematically analyzed and projected LE, HALE, and GAP across global regions from 1995 to 2025.MethodsWe obtained the data of 195 countries/regions on their LE, HALE, and influencing factors from 1995 to 2017. We compared the overall changes of LE, HALE, and GAP. Multiple linear regression analysis examined relationships among LE, HALE, GAP, and the associated factors. Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, we projected trends in LE, HALE, and GAP for 2017-2025.ResultsDuring 1995-2017, LE, HALE, and their GAP in 195 countries/regions in the world showed overall increasing trends. Global average LE increased from 66.20 to 72.98 years, HALE from 57.59 to 63.25 years, and GAP from 8.62 to 9.72 years. LE and HALE in North America, Europe, and Australia were generally higher, while Africa had the lowest rates. Females' LE, HALE, and GAP were all higher than males’, but females' growth rates of LE and HALE were lower. Different factors were included to project LE, HALE, and GAP, respectively, and prediction results showed that approximately 18% of the 195 countries/regions might achieve improved LE and HALE and lower GAP.ConclusionsLE, HALE will likely continue to increase in most of countries and regions worldwide in the future and GAP will further expand. While striving to improve LE and HALE, more attention needs be made to reduce GAP and improve quality of life.
Highlights
Life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) are indicators measuring the national health level
Improving quality of life and decreasing unhealthy survival time while prolonging life is a goal for all countries [3]
The increasing LE and HALE indicated that the health status had improved worldwide in the past and would continue to improve in the future, but there were some considerable disparities among countries, some countries/regions seem to be left behind these improvements, and more attention is needed for these countries in the future
Summary
We obtained the data of 195 countries/regions on their LE, HALE, and influencing factors from 1995 to 2017. We compared the overall changes of LE, HALE, and GAP. Multiple linear regression analysis examined relationships among LE, HALE, GAP, and the associated factors. We obtained the data for 195 countries and regions on their LE, HALE, and influencing factors for 19952017 from Global Burden of Disease (GBD), World Health Organization (WHO), and World Bank, and some from the official statistics websites. Descriptive analysis: We described the overall changes in LE, HALE, and GAP from 1995 to 2017, and by geographical distribution, economic level, and gender. Multiple linear regression analysis: Using multiple linear regression analysis, we explored the relationships among the factors with LE, HALE, and GAP from 1995-2012. Considering the social, economic, environmental, and disease factors, we included 15 influencing factors in our models
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