A comparative assessment and geospatial simulation of three hydrological models in urban basins

Abstract

Abstract The risk of flooding is a destructive natural hazard, and it is increasing due to heavy rainfall and anthropogenic factors. Hydrologic–hydraulic models serve as valuable tools for flood forecasting and predicting future flow patterns. These models evaluate and simplify processes in ungauged basins. In this study, three hydrologic models (soil conservation service [SCS], Snyder, and Temez) were used to calculate synthetic unit hydrographs for the Humaya and Tamazula River (H-T-R) basin. Additionally, the flows derived from the three models were simulated in Hydrological Engineering Center River Analysis System for various return periods (2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years). The accuracy of the models SCS, Snyder, and Temez was evaluated using the root-mean-square error (1162.44, 144.76, and 2890.6); Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (−51.12, 0.19, and −312.28); R 2 (0.97, 0.94, and 0.94), and kappa index (0.8534, 0.9895, and 0.7155), respectively. The data used in this study were obtained from a hydrometric station located on the Culiacan River. The main findings indicate that the Snyder model demonstrated a better predictive capability compared to the Temez and SCS models, albeit with a tendency to overestimate. Simulated flood depths are deeper in the upstream areas, particularly upstream from the Musala Island bifurcation on the Tamazula River, with values of 11.82 m for SCS, 9.76 m for Snyder, and 13.5 m for Temez. The simulation revealed potential overflow zones along the Tamazula River, particularly at the channel bifurcation and near the confluence with the Humaya River, during the 100 year return period simulation.