A comparative analysis of variants of machine learning and time series models in predicting women's participation in the labor force.

Abstract

Labor force participation of Egyptian women has been a chronic economic problem in Egypt. Despite the improvement in the human capital front, whether on the education or health indicators, female labor force participation remains persistently low. This study proposes a hybrid machine-learning model that integrates principal component analysis (PCA) for feature extraction with various machine learning and time-series models to predict women's employment in times of crisis. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms, such as support vector machine (SVM), neural network, K-nearest neighbor (KNN), linear regression, random forest, and AdaBoost, in addition to popular time series algorithms, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models, have been applied to an actual dataset from the public sector. The manpower dataset considered gender from different regions, ages, and educational levels. The dataset was then trained, tested, and evaluated. For performance validation, forecasting accuracy metrics were constructed using mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percent error (MAPE), R-squared (R2), and cross-validated root mean squared error (CVRMSE). Another Dickey-Fuller test was performed to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the applied models, and the results showed that AdaBoost outperforms the other methods by an accuracy of 100%. Compared to alternative works, our findings demonstrate a comprehensive comparative analysis for predicting women's participation in different regions during an economic crisis.