A Comparative Analysis of Recidivism With Propensity Score Matching of Informal and Formal Juvenile Probationers

Abstract

Given service costs and evidence suggesting mixing young offenders of different risk levels increases recidivism, this study determined the extent to which differential disposition and risk determined subsequent recidivism. Furthermore, this study entailed a comparison of offense outcomes for informal probationers (n = 581) and formal probationers (n = 773) of similar risk levels. Criminogenic risk was assessed using the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory. To control for selection effects, the two groups were matched based on propensity scores. Validation of the measure yielded an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of .67 for informal probationers and .62 for formal probationers. Low-, moderate-, and high-risk probationers were found in both groups of offenders. However, there were no significant differences in recidivism rates between similar risk level youth of the two respective probation groups. Policy and practice implications are offered and discussed.