Abstract
BackgroundPopulation ageing over the first half of this century is likely to lead to dramatic increases in the prevalence of dementia. This will affect all regions of the world, but particularly developing regions. Dementia projections have been used extensively to support policy. It is therefore important these projections are as accurate as possible.DiscussionIn this paper we provide a commentary on studies projecting the future prevalence of dementia for the world or for individual continents. We identify some important limitations of the methods used in published projections and provide recommendations to improve the accuracy of future projections, and allow for the checking of the accuracy of the predictions.SummaryAccurate projections of dementia incidence, at both the global and local level, are essential for healthcare planners.
Highlights
Population ageing over the first half of this century is likely to lead to dramatic increases in the prevalence of dementia
Since dementia incidence increases exponentially with age [3], the likely future number of dementia cases and associated burden on the healthcare system is of considerable concern to healthcare planners [4,5]
Summary In conclusion, population ageing is likely to lead to dramatic increases in the prevalence of dementia in future years
Summary
The dementia projections identified used two different methodologies (see Additional file 1): extrapolations [7,11,12] and macro-simulations [3,13,14,15]. Current estimates often extrapolate age-specific prevalence estimates to existing population projections or use macro-simulations based on age-specific dementia incidence While such projections are useful in highlighting the scale of the problem were risk factors to remain stable over time, this is clearly an untenable assumption. The development of sophisticated projection models that account for the incidence, progression and excessmortality of dementia and allow for detailed examination of the influence of changing patterns of risk factors on future prevalence is essential. This will enable researchers to target modifiable risk factors identified by epidemiological studies where intervention is most likely to delay dementia onset, reducing overall prevalence in future populations.
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