A combined interval prediction system based on fuzzy strategy and neural network for wind speed

Abstract

Wind energy exhibits strong fluctuations and intermittencies. The accurate prediction of wind speed is of considerable significance for the operation and maintenance of wind farms and the safety of the power grid. However, previous studies have often ignored the impact of data noise on trend prediction, and lacked effective data pre-processing methods and adaptive interval prediction schemes, resulting in poor prediction results. To improve the accuracy of prediction, this paper proposes a wind-speed combination interval prediction system based on a fuzzy strategy and neural network. This study used a fuzzy strategy to pre-process the data and proposed a joint optimization algorithm that uses multiple multi-objective metaheuristic algorithms to optimize the neural network jointly. An improved prediction hybrid algorithm was used to reconstruct the predicted results. Finally, based on the fuzzy theory and neural network, interval prediction schemes that can adapt to different situations were proposed. Wind-speed data from the Penglai Wind Farm in China were used for verification. The mean absolute percentage error of the wind-speed point prediction was 3.75%, and the prediction interval coverage probability of the wind-speed interval prediction was 97.92%. The experimental results showed that the proposed model not only outperforms other comparable models but also improves the prediction interval coverage probability by 176.4% compared with the baseline model. This proves that the integrated hybrid model can improve the accuracy and effectiveness of wind-speed prediction. The accurate interval prediction of wind speed can result in the complementary scheduling of renewable energy generation and the sustainable development of the energy field, and support intelligent upgrades.