A Combined Discrete Road Traffic State Prediction Model Based on GFD-ARMA-FISHER Analytical Framework

Abstract

With the popularization of the Internet and the widespread application of mobile terminal, travelers are increasingly dependent on traffic information. It is particularly important to construct and develop more accurate discrete traffic state prediction models. Considering that most of the previous studies about traffic state prediction are essentially a prediction of specific parameters, this paper proposes a generalized fractional difference (GFD)-auto regressive moving average (ARMA)-Fisher combined model that can directly predict the discrete traffic state. First, using the original historical traffic flow data as training samples for cluster analysis, we obtain different traffic state classification samples. Then, using the Fisher discriminant method, we develop a discrete traffic state recognition model based on the traffic state classification samples. The model can help us identify the discrete state of the future traffic flow when we input a set of predicted traffic parameters to it. In order to improve the accuracy of the model prediction, this paper creatively proposes to apply the GFD method to the stabilization of original traffic flow data and then develop an ARMA model to predict the traffic parameters processed by GFD (GFD-ARMA). Last, we obtain the predicted discrete traffic state using the calibrated Fisher discrimination model whose inputs are the parameters predicted by the GFD-ARMA. The proposed method is tested using field data from CHangzhou, China. The results suggest that the developed GFD-ARMA-FISHER method shows a higher accuracy for traffic state prediction and is better than other similar methods.