A combination prediction model based on Theil coefficient and induced continuous aggregation operator for the prediction of Shanghai composite index

Abstract

This paper proposes an interval combination prediction model for Shanghai composite index, utilizing the Theil coefficient and the induced continuous generalized ordered weighted logarithmic harmonic averaging (ICGOWLHA) operator. The effectiveness of the proposed model under specific weight conditions and the existence of its analytical solution are demonstrated. Shanghai composite index's case analysis demonstrates that, in terms of interval root mean squared error (IRMSE), interval mean absolute error (IMAE), interval mean absolute percentage error (IMAPE), and interval mean squared percentage error (IMSPE), the proposed model's predictive performance improvements over the best-performing single prediction model are 29.33%, 25.72%, 26.10%, and 28.86%, respectively. At the same time, the theoretical properties of the model are verified in the results of the case analysis, and the model's convergence is reflected in sensitivity analysis. Through extensive model comparisons, it is observed that the model proposed in this paper exhibits strong generalization, without specific limitations on data size or feature count. It demonstrates good aggregation prediction performance for interval data. Moreover, it is applicable to various fields, including finance, environment, and others.