Abstract
There is a good understanding of past and present coastal processes as a result of coastal monitoring programmes within the UK. However, one of the key challenges for coastal managers in the face of climate change is future coastal change and vulnerability of infrastructure and communities to flooding. Drawing on a vulnerability-led and decision-centric framework (VL-DC) a Decision Support Tool (DST) is developed which, combines new observations and modelling to explore the future vulnerability to sea-level rise and storms for nuclear energy sites in Britain. The combination of these numerical projections within the DST and a Real Options Analysis (ROA) delivers essential support for: (i) improved response to extreme events and (ii) a strategy that builds climate change resilience.
Highlights
Energy security is a fundamental requirement for well‐functioning modern societies (Morrissey et al, 2018)
The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of the ARCoES Decision Support Tool (DST) in understanding the physical and economic impact of sea‐level rise and storms across 4 nuclear energy sites located along the coast of the UK
The ARCoES DST and parallel Real Options Analysis (ROA) presented in this paper provide a resource that can be used to initiate discussions with coastal practitioners to identify how future vulnerability to coastal flooding may be mitigated through appropriate and timely intervention and adaptation
Summary
Energy security is a fundamental requirement for well‐functioning modern societies (Morrissey et al, 2018). To ensure that coastal populations and the necessary infrastructure required to sustain these populations are resilient in the future, tools that can inform adaptive management are required (Silva et al, 2017; Wadey et al, 2017; Lam et al, 2017) This is a complex problem as shoreline resilience to changes in the physical environment varies spatially and temporally in response to factors such as changing beach volume (Castelle et al, 2015), reduction in sediment supply (Guangwei, 2011), and the degradation of coastal wetlands (Lotzel et al, 2006), as well as to human interventions that are socio‐economically, politically and culturally determined (Ratter et al, 2016). Management tools require the capacity to monitor and project a variety of interlinked physical and societal processes including sea‐level rise, storm magnitude/frequency relationships, changing sediment budget (Brown et al, 2016) and population change and economic activity (Prime et al, 2018)
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