A Close-Up on a Predictive Moment: Illusion of Knowing or Lack of Confidence in Self-Assessment?

Abstract

Prediction allows learners to adjust behavior toward the future by exploiting information pertaining to the present and the past. Through a field study, we examined whether poor performing students are truly unaware of not knowing their deficiencies as the illusion of knowing (IoK) phenomenon implies. College students’ ability to predict their final test performance was surveyed as a function of experience (before and after the test), performance level, and self-efficacy. In this study, high performers’ prospective and retrospective predictions were more accurate and confident than those of poor performers. Although poor performers overestimated their grades (as predicted by IoK), they were less confident in their predictions. Furthermore, both their prediction accuracy and confidence benefited from the experience of taking the test. These findings, coupled with the lower self-efficacy of poor performers, suggest that prediction errors involving inflated estimations reflect the wishful thinking exhibited by students who are aware of their lack of competence but may have little confidence in their abilities.