Abstract
BackgroundThere is sufficient epidemiological and biological evidence of increased human susceptibility to viral pathogens such as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus and influenza virus, in cold weather. The pattern of outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China during the flu season is further proof that meteorological conditions may potentially influence the susceptibility of human populations to coronaviruses, a situation that may become increasingly evident as the current global pandemic of COVID-19 unfolds.Main bodyA very rapid spread and high mortality rates have characterized the COVID-19 pandemic in countries north of the equator where air temperatures have been seasonally low. It is unclear if the currently high rates of COVID-19 infections in countries of the northern hemisphere will wane during the summer months, or if fewer people overall will become infected with COVID-19 in countries south of the equator where warmer weather conditions prevail through most of the year. However, apart from the influence of seasons, evidence based on the structural biology and biochemical properties of many enveloped viruses similar to the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 or SARS-CoV-2 (aetiology of COVID-19), support the higher likelihood of the latter of the two outcomes. Other factors that may potentially impact the rate of virus spread include the effectiveness of infection control practices, individual and herd immunity, and emergency preparedness levels of countries.ConclusionThis report highlights the potential influence of weather conditions, seasons and non-climatological factors on the geographical spread of cases of COVID-19 across the globe.
Highlights
There is sufficient epidemiological and biological evidence of increased human susceptibility to viral pathogens such as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus and influenza virus, in cold weather
The incidence of infections caused by enveloped viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza virus and human metapneumovirus is higher when environmental temperatures are lower but RSV and influenza virus cases are limited to the cold winter months while hMPV cases are seen throughout the year and peak in later winter and spring [3]
It was recently reported that 70.2% of people that were positive for COVID-19 and as much as 79.4% of COVID-19 deaths throughout Italy occurred in the northern provinces namely Lombardi, Emilia Romagna, Veneto and Piemonte, the same areas from were the first cases of the disease were recorded in the country [10]
Summary
This report highlights the potential influence of weather conditions, seasons and non-climatological factors on the geographical spread of cases of COVID-19 across the globe.
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