A Climatology of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Northwest Mexico during the North American Monsoon

Abstract

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) may vary greatly with respect to their morphology, propagation mechanism, intensity, and under which synoptic-scale conditions as a function of topographic complexity. In this study, we develop a long-term climatology of MCS during the North American Monsoon focusing on MCS morphology, lifecycle, and intensity as well as possible propagation mechanisms. We employ an MCS tracking and classification technique based on 23 years (1995 to 2017) of GOES IR satellite data. MCS intensity is also gauged with 7 years (2011 to 2017) of Vaisala GLD360 lightning data and, finally, monthly and interannual variability in synoptic conditions are examined with ERA5 reanalysis data. Our results based on 1594 identified MCS reveal that 98% are morphologically classified as Persistent Elongated Convective Systems. During the 23 summers (June through September) observed, the number of MCS varied considerably, averaging 70 MCS with minimum of 41 and maximum of 94. MCS typically have an average duration of around 8 h ± with a 2 h standard deviation. Propagation speeds, estimated with Hovmöller diagrams in addition to MCS centroid initial and final position, vary slightly depending on the trajectory. A notable result suggests that MCS propagation speeds are more consistent density currents or cold pools and not gravity waves nor steering-level winds. The results of this study could also provide a dataset for examining larger-scale controls on MCS frequency in addition to assesing convective parameterization and convective-resolving models in regions of complex topography.