A citizen data-based approach to predictive mapping of spatial variation of natural phenomena

Abstract

The vast accumulation of environmental data and the rapid development of geospatial visualization and analytical techniques make it possible for scientists to solicit information from local citizens to map spatial variation of geographic phenomena. However, data provided by citizens (referred to as citizen data in this article) suffer two limitations for mapping: bias in spatial coverage and imprecision in spatial location. This article presents an approach to minimizing the impacts of these two limitations of citizen data using geospatial analysis techniques. The approach reduces location imprecision by adopting a frequency-sampling strategy to identify representative presence locations from areas over which citizens observed the geographic phenomenon. The approach compensates for the spatial bias by weighting presence locations with cumulative visibility (the frequency at which a given location can be seen by local citizens). As a case study to demonstrate the principle, this approach was applied to map the habitat suitability of the black-and-white snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus bieti) in Yunnan, China. Sightings of R. bieti were elicited from local citizens using a geovisualization platform and then processed with the proposed approach to predict a habitat suitability map. Presence locations of R. bieti recorded by biologists through intensive field tracking were used to validate the predicted habitat suitability map. Validation showed that the continuous Boyce index (Bcont(0.1)) calculated on the suitability map was 0.873 (95% CI: [0.810, 0.917]), indicating that the map was highly consistent with the field-observed distribution of R. bieti. Bcont(0.1) was much lower (0.173) for the suitability map predicted based on citizen data when location imprecision was not reduced and even lower (−0.048) when there was no compensation for spatial bias. This indicates that the proposed approach effectively minimized the impacts of location imprecision and spatial bias in citizen data and therefore effectively improved the quality of mapped spatial variation using citizen data. It further implies that, with the application of geospatial analysis techniques to properly account for limitations in citizen data, valuable information embedded in such data can be extracted and used for scientific mapping.