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Abstract
In this paper, the market potential for electric vehicles (EVs) in Flanders (Belgium) is forecasted with the use of a choice-based conjoint (CBC) analysis. In May 2011, a large-scale survey was conducted (n = 1.197). The goal of the survey was twofold: estimate the market potential for (plug-in hybrid) electric vehicles in Flanders (Belgium) and formulate recommendations for the further deployment of electric vehicles within the region of Flanders. When looking at the forecasts based on the CBC experiment, in 2020, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could reach a market share of around 5% of the newly sold vehicles in Flanders. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) could have a market share of around 7%. In 2030, these figures could increase to respectively 15% and 29%. A sensitivity analysis reveals that, in order to increase the potential for (PH)EVs, the main focus should be on decreasing the purchase costs.
Highlights
The interest in electric vehicles has peaked three times during the last decades: in the mid-1960s, between 19741981, and from 1985-present [1]
Our results indicate the following 2012 market shares: diesel (77%), petroleum (18%), battery electric vehicles (BEVs) (1%) and Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) (4%)
In order to better understand consumer acceptance for BEVs and PHEVs, we investigate the influence on the market share for different actions, both from a policy and manufacturer’s point of view
Summary
The interest in electric vehicles has peaked three times during the last decades: in the mid-1960s (early concern about air quality), between 19741981 (concern about imported petroleum), and from 1985-present (renewed interest in reducing petroleum import and abatement of pollutants from automobiles) [1]. EVs have certain characteristics that differ from conventional petrol or diesel vehicles. Their ecological impact is lower (especially when renewable energy such as wind or solar energy is used), the battery can be charged at home, the running costs (electricity) are low and the acceleration up to 50 km/h is very swift. In 2011, some of the world’s leading automobile manufacturers have inaugurated their first electric model since the beginning of the 21st century. This illustrates that manufacturers are interested in this technology that still needs to convince the public market.
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