Abstract
This paper aims at providing a different approach to international migration analysis, beyond classical models previously proposed by specialized literature. Chaos theory is getting more and more applied into macroeconomics once traditional linear models or even previous dynamic analysis become less suitable. Modern science sees chaos as unpredictable evolution, maybe even disorder. Still, chaos has got its own rules and can describe many dynamic phenomena within our world. Thus, we test whether international migration data falls under the rules of chaos and whether recent developments within the “European migration crisis” (the total daily migration inflows towards the coasts of Italy, by sea, from January 2014 to April 2017) could be described as chaotic.
Highlights
Given recent evolutions of the world economy and the clear failure of linear modeling in the field of economics, several other alternatives have been explored and tested, all of them in the area of non-linear dynamic systems
Chaos theory is one of them and this paper aims to employ this methodological approach in order to provide a new insight into international migration
Present findings point into the direction of modeling international migration according to new rules, as new circumstances would require
Summary
Given recent evolutions of the world economy and the clear failure of linear modeling in the field of economics, several other alternatives have been explored and tested, all of them in the area of non-linear dynamic systems. Chaos theory is one of them and this paper aims to employ this methodological approach in order to provide a new insight into international migration. International migration has been a focal point of interest lately given the systemic changes on a global level. There have been several approaches trying to simulate social mechanism from real life, population mobility majorly motivated by security and welfare reasons. Society’s changes, evolution, economic development, and political regimes and conflicts are driving international migration. This paper aims to work on a chaos algorithm suitable for modeling and describing the nonlinearity of the migration phenomena
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