A cellular automata-based model of Earth's magnetosphere in relation withDstindex

Abstract

The disturbance storm time (Dst) index, a measure of the strength of a geomagnetic storm, is difficult to predict by some conventional methods due to its abstract structural complexity and stochastic nature though a timely geomagnetic storm warning could save society from huge economic losses and hours of related hazards. Self-organized criticality and the concept of many-body interactive nonlinear system can be considered an explanation for the fundamental mechanism of the nonstationary geomagnetic disturbances controlled by the perturbed interplanetary conditions. The present paper approaches this natural phenomena by a sandpile-like cellular automata-based model of magnetosphere, taking the real-time solar wind and both the direction and magnitude of the BZ component of the real-time interplanetary magnetic field as the system-controlling input parameters. Moreover, three new parameters had been introduced in the model which modify the functional relationships between the variables and regulate the dynamical behavior of the model to closely approximate the actual geomagnetic fluctuations. The statistical similarities between the dynamics of the model and that of the actual Dst index series during the entire 22nd solar cycle signifies the acceptability of the model.