A Cellular Automata Model of the Relationship between Adverse Events and Regional Infrastructure Development in an Active War Theater

Bozkurt Bozkurt,Çakıt Çakıt,Karwowski Karwowski,Ahram Ahram

doi:10.3390/technologies7030054

Bozkurt Bozkurt, Çakıt Çakıt + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/technologies7030054

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Journal: Technologies	Publication Date: Aug 7, 2019
Citations: 1	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: University of Central Florida, Gazi University

Abstract

This study presents a cellular automata (CA) model to assist decision-makers in understanding the effects of infrastructure development projects on adverse events in an active war theater. The adverse events are caused by terrorist activities that primarily target the civilian population in countries such as Afghanistan. In the CA-based model, cells in the same neighborhood synchronously interact with one another to determine their next states, and small changes in iteration yield to complex formations of adverse event risks. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can help in the evaluation of infrastructure development projects in relation to changes in the reported adverse events, as well as in the identification of the geographical locations, times, and impacts of such developments. The results also show that infrastructure development projects have different impacts on the reported adverse events. The CA modeling approach can be used to support decision-makers in allocating infrastructure development funds to stabilize active war regions with higher adverse event risks. Such models can also improve the understanding of the complex interactions between infrastructure development projects and adverse events.

Highlights

In 2001, the United Nations (UN) Security Council authorized a temporary administration to dispatch peacekeeping forces to reassure steadiness in the region and aid delivery
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between adverse events and infrastructure development investments in an active war theater by using a cellular automata (CA)
CA modeling of the infrastructure development projects and adverse events was designed at two major implementation levels: The macro level; i.e., population and infrastructure development projects, and the micro level; i.e., reported adverse events in a given geographical region of Afghanistan

Summary

Introduction

In 2001, the United Nations (UN) Security Council authorized a temporary administration to dispatch peacekeeping forces to reassure steadiness in the region and aid delivery. Examples included rebuilding the bottom-up economic activity of indigenous institutions and constructing the necessary urban and civil community infrastructures The impact of these infrastructure developments has been little explored, and the relationship between infrastructure development and adverse events is not clear cut [3]. According to the Open Source Center (OSC) of the United States Central Intelligence Agency, terrorist attacks do not occur at random, and it is possible to detect representative patterns in space and time (spatiotemporal) [13]. These representative patterns can be modeled by using statistical human behavior modeling approaches [14]. Another study focused on the spatiotemporal factors of terrorist attacks in Israel [16] and concluded that spatiotemporal data are necessary for describing terrorist attack patterns

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