Abstract
While cellular automata (CA) has become increasingly popular in land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) simulations, insufficient research has considered the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of urban development strategies and applied it to constrain CA models. Consequently, we proposed to add a zoning transition rule and planning influence that consists of a development grade coefficient and traffic facility coefficient in the CA model to reflect the top-down and heterogeneous characteristics of spatial layout and the dynamic and heterogeneous external interference of traffic facilities on land-use development. Testing the method using Nanjing city as a case study, we show that the optimal combinations of development grade coefficients are different in different districts, and the simulation accuracies are improved by adding the grade coefficients into the model. Moreover, the integration of the traffic facility coefficient does not improve the model accuracy as expected because the deployment of the optimal spatial layout has considered the effect of the subway on land use. Therefore, spatial layout planning is important for urban green, humanistic and sustainable development.
Highlights
Reports on world urbanization prospects reveal that the global urban population exceeded the rural population in 2011, and it is predicted to reach 76% by 2050 [1,2]
The cellular automata (CA) model, as a common LUCC simulation model, simplifies the complicated urban development process by calibrating the characteristic parameters from the environmental space to design different transition rules, and it is a heuristic approach to understanding the realistic urban growth dynamics [6,7]
Our experiment shows that the proposed model can effectively simulate the LUCC and that the control granularity of land use development is heterogeneous in different districts, which is reflected in the difference in the development grade coefficient
Summary
Reports on world urbanization prospects reveal that the global urban population exceeded the rural population in 2011, and it is predicted to reach 76% by 2050 [1,2]. Wu [6] noted that urban land development consists of two interrelated processes: self-organized growth and spontaneous growth. The former represents the future state of land use that is dependent on the current state of land use in the neighbourhood, which is the result of local land-use interactions. This process corresponds to the basic principle of bottom-up CA; which states that complex global patterns are generated from the local evolutions by using transition rules [12,13]. Hagoort et al [14]
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